Fashion Trend Cycles

Not all trend are created equally…

Trends are classified as three different cycles: the fad, standard, and classic style.

A fad rises and fades very quickly (ex. gaucho pants)

Google trends analyzes keyword search volume data. See how the search for “Gaucho Pant” exploded just before 2006, then quickly declined into obsolescence?

Here’s a secret…based on the Fall 2020 shows, we may see this silhouette again. I think this trend will come back as a more standard (less fad) cycle. See my Fall 2020 predictions here.

A trend that rises and falls steadily, has a standard cycle (ex. off-the shoulder tops.)

Google search volume for “Off the Shoulder” steadily increase at the end of 2015, peaked in 2018, and has since declined.

A classic cycle is more prolonged and likely to stand the test of time (ex. skinny jeans.)

Skinny jeans were first introduced in 2005, peaked in 2009, then remained consistent in search volume.

By pinpointing where a trend is expressing on its cycle, you can interpret it’s endurance and longevity.

The goal is to send product to market before a trend is declining or, worse, obsolete. It’s brand damaging to represent a product that is over-exposed in the market. Some fast fashion brands, like Zara, are organizationally built to be speedy to market, so they can identify a trend and quickly ship similar product to stores.